US Universities: Who is Actually Graduating?

In six years from now, a college student who enters university in the US this year has only a 57% chance of having earned a degree. If the student is from a minority then that figure dips well below 45% and if the student has the misfortune of going to one of our poorer performing universities then there is as low as a 16% chance that they will have graduated.

Welcome to America’s tertiary education system.

It’s no exaggeration to say that the US has one of the most well-funded tertiary education sectors in the world from both public and private sources. $19,476 is spent per tertiary student per year in the US compared to an OECD average of $8,418. With the emphasis that we put on education spending, it might be surprising to many Americans to find that we trail the world in many key education outcomes – especially in the tertiary sector.

In addition to some less than stellar results in our overall university performance, we also have more than our fair share of even poorer outcomes for minorities and students from lower income families.

When a wealthy country like America which spends, on average, more than double that of other developed countries per student in tertiary education, starts falling down the rankings in key education results, it’s time to start asking some questions. So what exactly is the problem?

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How Bad is the Problem?

While better US universities compete comfortably with international institutions in graduation rates, some of our under-performing institutions have 6 year graduation rates as low as 16%. With the better institutions at closer to 80%, there is a massive disparity. Overall, almost one in three US students drop out of university compared to one in five in the 1960s.

In effect, the gap in institutional performance means that students with roughly equivalent entrance scores are more than three times as likely to graduate within six years if they go to a better institution.

The poorer performing universities include Chicago State University in Illinois (16%), Coppin State University in Maryland (19%), and Long Island University-Brooklyn Campus in New York (21%) while at the top of the pile in six year graduation rates are Merricmack College in Massachusetts (78%), Westminster College in Pennsylvania (76%) and Moravian College in Ohio (75%). Clearly there is room for massive improvement in both raising the graduation rates of the poorer-performing institutions as well as addressing the huge discrepancy.

Who is dropping out?

Studies suggest there are several main reasons that people drop out of university. Of the low income students who drop out of university, about half do so in good academic standing. That is to say, they were passing their courses. And while financial difficulty is a reason that people drop out, other reasons include false expectations of university (academically or socially), poor study habits or just plain old lack of motivation.

The National Center for Education Statistics also notes that drop out rates are much higher for both Hispanic and Black students. Other groups with high drop out rates include those who are the first in their family to attend college as well as returning adult students.

How Do Our Universities Compare to the Rest of the World?

While things aren’t so bad that we’re at the bottom of world rankings or anything like that, when compared to other wealthy nations such as those in the OECD, we start to see some worrying signs.

Overall 6 year graduation rates in the US are around 57%. By way of comparison, Japan’s 6 year graduation rate is up around 90% and South Korea and the UK at well over 80%. The OECD average is around 67%.

When the US spends more than double the OECD average on its students, there is clearly room for massive improvement.

What Are Our Universities Doing to Improve?

The figures suggest that the US tertiary sector has massive room for improvement. Certainly some universities are implementing programs that have been shown to have a positive impact on retention rates at university. These include social integration programs, multi-cultural centers, academic advisory centers and learning support.

It is, however, worrying that when the ACT contacted universities to inquire about their student retention policies, less than half had established a goal for increased first year student retention and two thirds had no goal for improving overall degree completion.

Clearly there is a lot of work to be done.